On Scientific Knowledge, Weight Loss, and Being Very Wrong

I have been wrong, very wrong, about diet and nutrition for my whole life. I hate being wrong.


As a critical thinker and trained research scientist with a Ph.D. in biology I feel that I should have done better. My only defense is that when one is an expert in a field, one tends to trust the opinions of experts in other fields.


I know I have the tools and ability to become an expert at many things, but it takes some serious motivation. If I was diagnosed with cancer, I would devour the literature and trust no one until I mastered it. But for everyday matters like nutrition I have always just done what I was told.


I have been blogging on and off about my weight loss efforts (roller coaster) since 2007 (read the whole mess in reverse chronological order here if you want), but the roller coaster actually started much earlier. The short version goes like this: 300-220, 270-213, 280-220, 285-225, 270-219 (current). As you can see I am really very good at losing weight, but pathetic at keeping it off.


So what is different about this time? Why do I finally think I have found the answer? Easy: I am not on a diet this time. Oh, it started out as a diet (Slow Carb from The Four Hour Body), but it has morphed into a simple and hopefully permanent lifestyle change.


The change is this: no grains and no sugar and no starchy vegetables. Or more prosaically no bird food or hippopotamus food (hippopotami eat sugar cane).


OK, that's a little over-simplified, but the whole thing really is just to minimize insulin production - eat few enough carbs (especially fructose! - no fructose that doesn't come from whole fruit!) so that you are losing or not gaining weight and stop worrying about fat intake, especially saturated fat. Other than that, eat anything in any quantity, especially meat and vegetables. But beware things that can cause insulin spikes even if they are non-caloric like artificial sweeteners.


I weigh less than I have in ages. I have more energy than I have had in ages. My teeth feel cleaner. I am less irritable and more positive. I am never hungry. I don't have to measure or record what I eat. I get to eat lots of things I love (bacon, eggs, cheese, steak, broccoli, kale, collard greens). I do miss a few things (bread, beer, sweets), but there is no formula for weight loss that doesn't require some changes/sacrifice - I should know, I've done enough of them.


So do I have my own brilliance to thank for this? Alas, no. I must give full credit to Gary Taubes who devoured the literature for me and laid out the arguments in a clear logical fashion. I can't overstate this - my entire view of nutrition, science, and even human history has been altered in the last few months as I digested these ideas and then proved them out on my own body.


A huge fraction of the conventional nutritional wisdom is wrong. Demonstrably wrong. Scientifically wrong. Gary certainly isn't the first person to espouse reducing carbs (neither was Atkins), but he lays out the history and arguments extremely well. From a scientific perspective we don't even really know that carbs are the problem (the telling experiments have not been done), but I now believe that the carbohydrate hypothesis is highly compelling and most likely true (with a fructose hypothesis as a close second - but that's another post).


Gary Taubes is a an excellent science writer who frequently writes for Science magazine, often on the topic of bad science. He has written two books and some articles on the carbohydrate hypothesis. You can see him speak here. if you are going to read just one book, it should be Why We Get Fat: And What To Do About It. His other book, Good Calories, Bad Calories, is excellent, but be warned that it is dense with literature references and the like - it is very complete - doctors and scientists will likely want to read this one.


These books and the seminar are all top notch stuff. Two thumbs up. Go watch. Go read. Why We Get Fat is also available on audible.com, so you can listen too.


These are not diet books, so don't expect that. You'll have to go elsewhere for low carb diet advice (or make up your own as I did - the principles are easy).


I do not believe that a thinking person can read Why We Get Fat without changing their diet, so be warned about that as well. If you'd rather live with your head buried in the sand, stay far away.


The really scary thing is that if the carbohydrate hypothesis is correct, we are royally screwed. Only a tiny fraction of the planet can afford to eat properly and our entire global food production system is set up almost exactly wrong to address it. But that too will have to be another post.


David

Weight Loss And The iPhone

I had a few extra pounds after the holidays. OK, a few more than a few. But not as many as some previous times. I'll leave my efforts to get off the diet roller coaster for another post (current thinking), but suffice it to say that I have once again managed to shed some poundage.

In late December I realized that I was going to have to buy a new wardrobe if I didn't do something. Sure, I used to have clothes one size up (and two sizes up and three sizes up...), but I got optimistic and threw them out after the last time I lost weight.

So my plan was to do the diet journal thing again. Set a goal, calculate a calorie budget, write everything down in a Moleskine Cahier and generally keep myself on track.

Then it occurred to me that I have a shiny new iPhone. Like a Moleskine Cahier and Space Pen, it can always be with me. Unlike a Moleskine it has the potential to do portion size calculations and easy numerical tracking. Plus since I am a gadget freak using the iPhone adds considerably to my motivation.

So I downloaded most of the apps in the App Store that I thought might do what I want. What I want is:

• Ability to track calories by meal
• A database of foods to replace my trusty Calorie King book
• Ability to track weight over time
• Ability to add my own foods to the database
• Ability to track just calories (so I don't always HAVE to add something to the database)

I eventually settled on iShape. It does all of these things except that the database isn't complete by any means and doesn't replace Calorie King. It has some other nice features too. You set a goal weight and activity level and it calculates a target calorie limit for you and estimates when you will meet your goal. You can customize many elements (like set your own daily calorie target) and you can add in the effects of exercise and track your waist measurement and BMI. Plus tons of features that I never used (track water, fat, protein, exercise, etc).

I also added WeightBot for some additional weight tracking because I really like the user interface. And the sounds. Slick. But it lacks the one graph view I really want (start to finish), so it ended up not being quite what I wanted. iShape does it all.

Anyway the iPhone is a pretty good system for the diet journal approach. I always had it with me. I always had the ability to google for things that weren't in the database. I could snap a photo of a meal if I didn't feel like estimating it right that moment. It is slower than a notebook to add new foods, but much faster to deal with your favorites. The calorie tracking graph in iShape kept me honest and allowed me to try to make up for some bad days with some good days. The weight tracking (in both apps) kept me motivated as I saw the changes.

If you are a nerd and you have an iPhone and you are overweight (are those three things completely redundant?), give it a try. I guarantee calorie tracking works if you commit to it.

I hit my goal this morning. I have officially been under the "overweight" line for a few days, but it feels really nice to actually hit the target.

I hit my goal just in time to absorb the extra calories from my fresh homemade doughnut breakfast this morning. Did I mention that I got a deep fryer? All things in moderation.

David


(for anyone reading this who has never met me, those numbers are correct - I'm 6' 7")

Diets and Diaries

This study validates my whole approach to weight loss. There is some more discussion here.

I haven't been very good about keeping my food diary of late and I have gained a few pounds back. One of the reasons I get tired of the whole food diary thing, though, is that I have insisted on doing complete calorie calculations, which gets darned tiresome.

The study implies that that might not be necessary. The more you record, the better you are likely to do, but the act of recording may be what puts you over the edge.

Like I might not have had that second handful of yummy M&M Premiums (Triple Chocolate) last night if I had had to record the fact for posterity.

So I am going to try it for a while and see what comes of this easier lighter weight food diary.

David

Dieting again

After a long break, I am back on the diet again (posts from last years efforts here, here, and here).

I have come to realize several things about myself through my weight control efforts. The main ones are probably that I am much better than most people about exercising iron control and I am much worse than most people about exercising reasonable control. Here's a graph of my weight over time:




As you can easily see, as long as I am paying attention there is a nice downward trend. The second I stop there is a nice upward trend.

So I have the iron control and the method. I am not worried about getting into my target range. But I am very worried about how to stay there once I do. I either need a better balanced strategy or I need to accept the idea that I am a yo-yo and I just need to be able to rapidly transition between good/not so good. I guess I'll spend the next couple of months pondering that.

Suggestions welcome.

David

Staying On Track

This diagram says a lot. I started the year with South Beach and got discouraged when the losses flattened a bit. Then I switched to my current scheme of restricted caloric intake.

Are the losses starting to flatten again? How do I keep up the motivation for the last few pounds?

Diet update - success so far

The diet has been going great. My last weigh in on 7/21 was 232 pounds, which is down 30 pounds for this latest diet (everything on the blog) and down 45 pounds since the beginning of the year. Yay!

The tools are:

• The math and formulas already blogged
• A Moleskine Cahier notebook for recording every calorie.
• A Fisher Space Pen so that I always have a pen with me for said recording.
• A digital balance, for calculating the caloric content of foods I prepare.
• A copy of the Calorie King book for the caloric content of prepared and unlabelled foods.

Still a ways to go, but boy do I feel a lot better about myself. Seventeen more pounds and I am technically not even overweight anymore and I will be the lightest that I have been at any point in the last 10 years or more.

David

Phew! Back on the Bandwagon.

The birthday (and therefore the Buttercream Frosting) are over. Back to the diet. I did manage one day of simply remarkable calorie consumption - I need to keep that to a minimum. No measurable weight gain, fortunately.

That cake sure was tasty, though.

For reference, that frosting recipe spread on a 13X9 Duncan Hines yellow cake mix yields a cake with very close to 8000 calories total (7920). A 1/8th slice then is 990 calories. Yikes.

David

On Weight Loss

I lost a lot of weight a couple of years ago using South Beach. The total including the pre-South Beach cutting back was around 60 pounds. That is a lot of pounds. I thought South Beach was a miracle.

Then just as I hit my target weight I found out Deb was pregnant. Then shortly after, we found out it was a highly problematic pregnancy. Then we had an infant undergoing lots of surgeries. And now we have a happy healthy toddler.

It all ultimately turned out great, but none of it did anything good for maintaining my weight, including the present happy healthy toddler situation. So now I am a fat pig again. As the weight was coming back on I made a couple of attempts to start South Beach again, but I found that phase I was never as effective as the first time and at some point I stopped believing that I could religiously follow the South Beach plan for the rest of my life.

So what to do? I needed a new strategy. I had tipped over the limit again from "overweight" to "obese" (i.e. my BMI was over 30) and something had to change.

I am a scientist, so in no way do I believe that there is anything ultimately magical about cutting back on carbs. It probably changes your biochemistry a little (OK, definitely), but ultimately what matters for weight loss is calorie reduction. Period. If you burn more calories than you eat, you will lose weight. If you burn fewer calories than you eat you will gain weight. Very simple.

So I have two choices, burn more calories (exercise more), or eat less. Did I mention that I have a toddler? Excercizing much more is out. I can try to keep myself in the "Active" column (defined as 4000-6000 steps by us pedometer wearing geeks), but there is no way I can rationally aspire to the "Very Active" column (>10,000 steps).

OK, so I need to eat less. How much less? I needed a rational no BS guide to optimal weight, calorie intake, and the like. I picked up the No-Fad Diet book as a resource.

Step 1. Validate the caloric intake estimates in the book. I am usually (OK, always, I am in the 99.99th percentile for height) off the chart and what applies to the little people doesn't always apply to me. The book said that to maintain my current weight I would have to be eating between 3300 and 3900 calories per day (or more as I was gaining). So I kept track for several days and sure enough, that was a pretty good estimate.

Step 2. Set a target weight. Did I mention that I am off the charts? Fortunately the charts are linear and I was able to do a linear regression to determine my ideal weight range. In case anyone else needs them, here are the formulas (height is in inches):

OWLow = 4.757895 * Height - 158.411

OWHigh = 5.733333 * Height - 192.66

Obese = 5.733333 * Height - 191.66

UW = 3.785714 * Height - 135.071

You are overweight in the OWLow to OWHigh range. You are obese at Obese and higher. And you are underweight below UW. So I am overweight when over 217 and the middle of my ideal range is 191. That seems low to me, but I'll go with it for now. 217 is definitely OK and if I start to look like a 6 foot 7 inch scarecrow as I move towards 191 I can always reevaluate.

Step 3. Set a target for daily caloric intake. Fortunately my weight isn't off the charts, so I could just look this up. At my ideal weight of 191, my caloric intake should be between 2483 (inactive) and 2865 (active) to maintain that weight indefinitely. I will most likely always eat more on weekends and I can more easily eat less during the week, so I set a target of 2400 calories (or less) on a seven day moving average, during the diet period. I will adjust this to 2800 or so after I lose the weight.

Step 4. Don't cheat. Hmmm, how to do this? I chose to be obsessive about writing down every calorie that I put in my mouth. So far that is working for me.

I have been doing this for 14 days now and I can report that I have dropped from a starting weight of 262 to 250. It is very exciting to lose 12 pounds, and very depressing to think that I have as much as 59 to go. Still, this is every bit as good as South Beach was the first time (so far) and I feel like I have control over the elements of success.

David